The South African COVID Strain Requires a ~Zero COVID Strategy
Update (04/01/21, 14:15):
This article might be a tad overblown. It seems that it is not difficult to update the vaccine to handle a new strain:
If the virus does change, then it should be possible to tweak the vaccines without going through full regulatory approval. Sir John estimated that that would take a month to six weeks.
He added that this was to be expected and that manufacturers had anticipated it. “Everyone should stay calm. It’s going to be fine. We’re now in a game of cat and mouse. These are not the only two variants we will see. We are going to see lots of variants.”
From: South African coronavirus mutation may beat jabs
Original Article:
I have such a bleak outlook on the coming months of COVID in the UK that I am rarely negatively surprised by the news. This morning I was. Listening to Matt Hancock on BBC Radio 4’s Today show and then reading extracts from his other morning interviews left me with a new sinking feeling.
Hearing that Matt Hancock is “incredibly worried” about the South African COVID strain is a big deal [Matt Hancock is 'incredibly worried' about the South African variant of coronavirus as vaccines may not be as effective]. It’s a big deal because he is very much in the know, so he has the information needed to set his worry level accurately. Despite the view of anti-lockdown-anti-maskers, this government is not alarmist when it comes to coronavirus. The opposite in fact. So, to hear Hancock’s concern is explosive, setting a cacophony of alarm bells ringing in my head.
It sounds like this new COVID variant is faster spreading than the UK one, which appears to thrive in tier four restrictions. On top of this it may be vaccine resistant due to significant changes to the virus’ protein structure. A match made in hell. If the South African COVID is allowed to run wild in the UK (and we don’t have a great track record when it comes to keeping COVID under control) then the UK may have to wave goodbye to any sense of normality arriving in 2021, and perhaps 2022/23.
Some things are so serious that they require responses with barely any room for the accommodation of balancing other needs. The UK is already at that point when it comes to preventing the UK strain from overwhelming the NHS - something that I believe it has already failed to prevent; today, the strictest national lockdown is required. If the alarm surrounding the South African COVID strain is accurate, the need for a response with little room to manoeuvre is doubly true.
As brutal as it is (and it really is very brutal), China showed the world by the middle of March that there was a way to beat COVID. Shut everything the fuck down: your people and your borders. We have found the idea of that unmanageable, and it certainly goes against everything that fits with our DNA as a country. However we have not even done the light version of that with a degree of seriousness; porous un-COVID-tested borders with very limited checkups on isolation meets light lockdowns with confusing rules which are communicated without sufficient energy meets a government which sets a tone of rule breaking/flexing from the top down.
A lot in politics lets you get away with an attitude like this. While Brexit will make everyone’s lives that little bit worse, it happily resolves itself in the comfortable space of cavalier wibbly-wobbly politics. But some things don’t, and one of those things is COVID.
We have already failed the light COVID test. We had a lot on our side that we didn’t appreciate at the time; a slower strain, a lower infection base and the shock of the first wave - meaning lockdown rules were stuck to. We squandered our good fortune - or rather threw it away by paying people to go to restaurants. Now the (first?) of the hard COVID tests is on the horizon. There may be no room for fun, games and balance with this one.
So, what could be done? I am arguing for an attempt at COVID-zero. I do not think it would be successful, but I do believe it would be possible to get to a place where a sustained level of low spread is achieved and outbreaks are caught and controlled quickly. And how could it be done? Firstly, I would depoliticise COVID. Just like inflation, infection targets (n/100,000) would be set by a broad of independent scientists. The job of achieving these infection targets would be handled by the military. COVID requires military grade precision, something we have not appreciated yet as a country. The military could perhaps split the country into small zones with policed borders which could only be passed for a small list of specific reasons + a negative rapid COVID test. The military could then systematically extinguish COVID in each zone. Sample testing the population and ensuring isolation was stuck to, with sufficient food and money provided. International travel would need to be reduced, with only UK nationals allowed back in for a period, with testing at the border and managed isolation (perhaps using the methods of New Zealand, where arrivals are not allowed home, but must isolate in designated hotels for two weeks).
It would be weird. But it may give us a sense of being in safe hands for the first time in this crisis. This could have (and should have) been done at the start, and it would have been much easier then than it is now. With COVID it is always easier today than tomorrow. Given the South Africa mutation, an attempt at COVID-zero should not be delayed.